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Mizzou preview: Will's changing role

Amidst all the celebrating, praising, and hand-wringing that goes along with Angel Rodriguez as the man leading the offense, it's easy to forget that Kansas State also has a guy who seemed like at least a serviceable point guard at the start of this season. Only the most delusional among us would ever predict All-Big 12 status or anything close to it for Will, but he didn't do a terrible job.

Will Spradling avoided egregious turnovers, could knock down open shots, and I'd like to think it would throw opposing defenses off a little when they heard the voice of a 12-year-old calling out plays. Sometimes, it makes me sad to think those days are over.

Still, much like Will's individual talent, it was always evident the K-State offense with him running it had a definite ceiling. Though he has learned to make opposing guards pay if they fall asleep, Will generally couldn't make something out of nothing off the dribble, and he's not one to make those crazy passes that can either lead to incredible alley-oops (about 40 seconds in), remarkably stupid turnovers, or anything in between.

In spite of everyone hopping aboard the Angel Rodriguez Roller Coaster, Spradling still has a vital place in the K-State lineup and a very bright future ahead of him. He fits well into the Frank system and continues to be a guy you can count on to give great effort every night.

For some thoughts on Will's new role and a short Missouri preview, click the jump.

Star-divide

Theoretically, moving Will over to the shooting guard should have been good for a guy generally regarded as one of the team's best pure shooters, but 29% from the field and 27% from beyond the arc in conference play would indicate otherwise. It doesn't seem like Will is a guy that would be affected mentally by losing his spot at the point, but this has been going on too long to just be a regular slump, so maybe he is suffering from no longer getting those pull-up looks when defenses failed to find him pushing it down the floor.

It does seem that his cutting ability could use a lot of work -- and not just because of his lack of quickness -- so maybe that's part of the problem as well. If there's anyone on the team that could adjust to having to learn a new position, you'd think it would be Spradling, but apparently it's going to take some time.

On the plus side, he remains a more consistent alternative at the point when Angel needs a rest or just a quick trip to the bench to clear his head. The more we can keep Martavious Irving away from playing the 1, the better.

Defensively, Spradling is much less of a liability than he was when he arrived in Manhattan. Unfortunately, against teams loaded with quick and athletic guards (see: Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri) his lack of lateral foot speed becomes quite evident.

It's one of my many concerns for tonight's game at Columbia, where preventing easy baskets inside from the relentless Tiger guards will be crucial. To his credit, Will did a great job in a team-high 31 minutes against Mizzou in Manhattan, but I find it kind of hard to imagine that Michael Dixon and the Presseys aren't licking their chops a little when they see some of the game film of Spradling's defense.

I'm sure we all fondly remember the game in Bramlage, where Kansas State absolutely dominated the first half and cruised to victory by attacking Missouri on both ends of the floor. It was a thorough stomping that made a lot of people stupidly question all of the Tigers' success to that point, as well as the limitations of a four-guard offense in the Big 12 conference.

I'd also like to take this opportunity that I not only predicted the upset, but also wrote "if the 'Cats can control the boards and limit turnovers (two big ifs, to be sure) then it's not impossible to see Kansas State winning this game comfortably." Kansas State won the rebounding battle 39-25 and committed just 14 turnovers in the blowout.

Sadly, much of what happened in Manhattan is extremely unlikely to be repeatable in Columbia. There are several reasons the average annual difference in the margin of the two games has been an astounding 28 points during the Frank Era, with the home team winning every game.

To me, the biggest thing that always shows up in the series between these two teams is shooting, specifically behind the 3-point line. Ron Paul is going to be our nation's president before Mizzou shoots 22.7% from the field in the first half on its homecourt, where the Tigers don't have the horribly ugly dark wood inside the Bramlage 3-point lines to distract them.

The same goes for Kansas State's 58.6% shooting in the first half, though a large part of that can be credited to great shot selection from getting the ball inside and completely overwhelming the smaller and weaker Tigers.

While Missouri has about the same overall percentage at home (49.7%) in Big 12 play as on the road (48.1%), the difference from 3-point range is much more pronounced. The Tigers are shooting 42.4% in 7 conference home games, compared to 30.7% in other Big 12 buildings.

I still say the best option to stop the three-ball is to pay especially close attention to Marcus Denmon and Kim English and hope the other guys don't get hot, though Michael Dixon has been Missouri's best scorer for stretches at times this season. This team has enough offensive weapons that it can easily make up for an off-night from any one of its outstanding top six players.

I don't really want to dwell on it too much, and our friends at Rock M Nation (Update: RMN's preview is up, and to their credit, it doesn't really mention the officials) will surely have a more in-depth explanation, but it's impossible to ignore the effects of the officials in a game between two teams that play with such high-energy. This doesn't mean K-State shouldn't attack the basket again as much as possible, because Mizzou still doesn't have any shot blockers.

One obvious impact is that I would almost guarantee Ricardo Ratliffe will not be rendered essentially nonexistent with four fouls that limited him to 14 minutes, as he was in Manhattan.The good news is Ratliffe looked just plain awful for large parts of Mizzou's game Saturday against A&M, scoring four points in a game where he was benched not for fouling, but for ineptitude.

However, I do want to note Mizzou shot 25 free throws to Kansas State's 21 in the first meeting, so it would be incredibly difficult for Tiger fans to convince me that the referees played any part in KSU's dominance.

The basic gameplan shouldn't really change much from the first game, but Frank may have to do more in terms of game management to keep the crowd from getting into it and maybe slowing the game down to give Missouri fewer possessions. The Tigers are going to make more shots this time, so Kansas State must be ready with answers.

At the end of the day, I don't feel great about K-State's chances here. But I will say I think the Wildcats have more hope of winning this one than Missouri has of winning in Lawrence on Saturday. I'd love to be wrong on both counts.

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Comments

MU is going to get curb-stomped in Lawrence on Saturday.

I’ve never been surer of predicting a demolition of a top 5 team in my life.

MU could put the 95-96 Bulls in black and gold...

… and I think I’d still expect a loss in Lawrence.

WHO SAYS I’M SCARRED?

I would expect a bunch of fat 40+ year olds to lose in Lawrence too, no matter how good they were 16 years ago!
This could happen

But just curous why you are so sure. You think Mizzou is a fraud? You think Kansas is the best team in the nation? You think Allen is that tough?

Opposing teams that are ranked high for whatever reason

tend to engage in pants pooping before and during games at Allen…

Well, the team that wears purple in there the last 20 years has anyway.
Everyone has.

Let’s not bring colors into this.

Hey! We won in 2006! You remember that one time, right?
and we also weren't a top 5 (or top 25 for that matter) team then either.

Just as Davidson wasn’t this year either.

KU just seems to have another switch they can flip when they are playing a good opponent. They can usually sleepwalk through most of the games in the Phog (which explains why they lose to unranked teams…because they are doing just that – sleepwalking), but they very rarely let their guard down when a heavy hitter comes in.

Davidson was in the Sprint Center

but your point is valid

What I saw for 95% of the game in Columbia ...

Was the better team (and a team with a decided matchup advantage) pretty much handling the game from the start. And that was a game that MU players might have chosen to die rather than lose. It took a Marcus Denmon miracle, Tyshawn Taylor choking at the FT line, and getting a couple of crucial 50/50 calls (generously) in the last 2 minutes to pull that game out.

Now, reverse the intangibles. ku players would probably rather die than lose this game. And even eliminating the historical factors of the rivalry, ku comes out of the gate on fire and razor-sharp in games like this, every time. Especially at home. I expect ku’s role players (Withey, Releford, Teahan) to be more than a virtual zero in this one.

As far as basketball reasons, I think ku’s frontcourt advantage will go full-bore. I think MU is considerably less of a team on the road, for the usual factors that affect all teams, but can affect a shooting team even a little more. I credit MU for grinding out all those conference road wins this year, usually in spite of being a lesser version of themselves. @ku is a different animal, especially in this situation.

By the way, I have no idea why anyone would think MU is a “fraud”. They’re freaking 12-2 in the Big12 with wins @ISU, @Baylor, and @Texas. Or why anyone would think that ku is “the best team in the nation”. I don’t know why you have to go by those assumptions to predict a blowout.

ku is not a good matchup for MU and the intangibles are almost 100% on ku’s side. I think MU could hang in there with an historically great team shooting performance.

The idea that KU dominated that game from the start

Bugs me. See the game flow chart here. The bump KU had in minutes 33-38 was essentially equivalent to the bump MU had before halftime. Mizzou’s biggest lead was 7; KU’s was 8.

In sum, this game was neck-and-neck throughout. I honestly don’t understand how you can say KU handled that game from the start, or for 95% of the action.

All that said, it is true that a close game in Columbia could correspond with a easier win for KU at Allen. But it also true that KU has played large stretches of games at home and away this year where they have looked beatable, and again, while it rarely happens at home, KU has been known to, uh, underperform in pressure situations.

I should say

I of course appreciate the point that the late game heroics were essential for MU to win. But I don’t think that means KU handled Missouri for 95% of that game — I think it means Kansas almost put the game away with a late run, until Missouri did. (I will not bother to beat the dead horse of the charging calls)

Well, good luck with that "rarely" part.

If I had a mathematical proof, I’d give it to you.

I didn’t say ku “dominated” the game in Columbia. But, “handling” the game for “95%” was a very inaccurate phrasing of my opinion by me. I had thought I remembered that ku was either virtually even or had a small-ish lead for most of the game. The gist of what I meant was that, given the time/place/situation of the game, I think it was pretty clear which was the better team and that they were in control of the situation (which I didn’t expect before the game and I think colored my remembrance).

I think ku is the better team in a neutral court matchup by a few points. I think they’re the better team at home by double digits and in this particular situation a blowout seems predictable to me.

Those “large stretches of games at home where they have looked beatable” have to do with being bored. All except the ISU game, where ku just can’t find a way to match up with Royce White.

Fair enough

My reaction stems not just with your comment, but a lot of postgame analysis that implied Self outcoached Haith (by having the brilliant insight to get the ball to Thomas Robinson) or that KU had controlled the game start-to-finish.

In my opinion, Tyshawn Taylor is the most important player on the floor in any game KU plays. Robinson is the best player, but Taylor dictates whether KU is a good team or an elite team. His emergence as a consistent offensive player is the reason why a KU team that looked a step or two below KU’s usual standard now sits poised to win another conference title. (They wouldn’t have won last Monday wihtout him drilling those ridiculous threes). So my hope for Saturday is that he has a regression game.

Of course, first Mizzou has to take care of business tonight…

I don't hold any opinion on the coaching of that particular game.

I simply think ku has a generous matchup advantage. MU’s margin for error against that advantage is tough.

Totally agree on Taylor. I know there is a low opinion for Taylor around here, but he has been a money player this year, outside of some late FT issues. He’s had a habit of making plays exactly when ku needs them in the flow of the game. And lots of them. Put a replacement level player at PG and ku is scrambling bigtime.

He is a liability at the end of the game

Which is one of the reasons KU lost to Misosuri, and almost lost to KSU. But other than that weakness, he has been a huge piece of the puzzle for them this season, especially since conference play began.

It's the other edge of the sword ...

He’s been a liability at the end, yet he’s the reason he’s been in a position to be a liability at the end.

No fraud has ever been so good this late in the season

I will admit, I thought MU was a fraud when the Cats hammered them. It turns out it was a fluke both ways – MU hasn’t been nearly so awful and the Cats haven’t been nearly so good since that day.

MU’s damned good, and I think they’ll be fun to watch in the NCAA tournament (when I will be cheering for all conference schools, even MU), but I too think KU will hammer MU.

Will is still the point when Angel is not on the floor

and it should only help your offense if you have two guys on the court who call call plays and set up the offense. I think Frank is under utilizing that resource. I mean, if either guy can call the play, you can’t key on one, you can’t properly shut down the passing lanes, and you can’t effectively defend all the cuts/shifts/motion.

I know Will isn’t the most athletic guy around, but he is smart and plays with limited mistakes. You have to know that if Bill Snyder was running this team, Will would be the point because of that. There are times when I would much rather go with the stability that Will usually brings at the point, than the high-risk (KU)/high-reward (Baylor) play that we get from Angel. If it were my team, I would have had Angel playing more in the non-con, in basically the form Will is now (2-guard to point when needed), and then transitioned into a two-point offense by January. This team is young, and I don’t think a 2-point system would hurt them in the slightest. In fact, if Missouri is any indication of how it could work, I would expect fewer turnovers, better scoring averages (even if points don’t go up), and fewer baffling losses.

The problem with this is Will was actually committing a solid number of passive turnovers.

There’s no question in my mind Angel should be handling most of the PG minutes. I’m still convinced Will is going to snap out of this yearlong shooting slump. Maybe he won’t. But as Frank has said, he needs to keep shooting. If he doesn’t it limits our offense (and offensive rebounding which is a big part of our offense) greatly.

"You have to know that if Bill Snyder was running this team, Will would be the point because of that." - and that's likely why Angel has driven me so crazy at points this year

I miss the good old days of Carson Coffman running the offense.

Lord help me.

It hasn't been as bad lately, but there was a stretch of games

mid-season where the offense was running better with Angel at point. When Will was at that position, the other players stopped moving and just stood around. Not sure why that was.

Both Will and Angel have the bad habit of driving the lane without knowing their exit strategy. That results in bad shots/turnovers, and only rarely a positive play. If both players can learn better control and more court awareness, that should lead to reduced negative plays in that area.

They are trying to be Jake/Dennis

without having the experience/knowledge of the offense that those guys had

^THIS!

I have actually noticed this with all of our players though. It became glarigly evident to me in the KU game in Manhattan though.

Especially during fast breaks.

Watching KSU on a fast break and KU on a fast break are night and day different. Every time we get a fast break opportunity, I hold my breath wondering how it will finish…with a nifty slam, lay-up, missed slam, missed lay-up, alley-oop, or the ball being poked out of bounds by the trailing defender. The KU fast breaks, on the other hand were pretty much all displays of hoops beauty and/or “we totally have more athletic ability in our front court than you have in your entire team”. It’s like KU could run a fast break with all three breakers wearing blindfolds, and they all know what the other guy is going to do. I WISH we were that much on the same page with each other. I think we will look like a much more cohesive group next season.

The good thing about tonights game is no one expects us to win

No pressure, just play. I will be surprised if we hold them under 50% shooting or under 70 points. As long as it’s not another blow out like last year there I’ll be happy.

I get the feeling that we're either going to get totally blown away from the opening tip ...

Or we’ll be in it to the end.

Now, I think the former is far, far more likely than the latter. But I just get the feeling that there isn’t room for much in between.

If MU starts throwing up crap from 27' away and making it

I am turning off the TV.

that's a pretty safe bet since there is only one other option...

…us blowing them out from the beginning, and that just doesn’t happen to good teams at home.

i just know that we will win the game if we have more points at the end of the game.

There are actually plenty of other options ...

We could compete evenly from the start, but gradually build a sizeable deficit. Or an even game from start to finish. Or MU building a big lead from the start and KSU coming back to even it up. etc, etc, etc.

I’m not feeling any of those, though.

My mistake ...

Or an even game from start to finish

Replace that with something like KSU building a lead from the start but losing it.

Nice write-up.

I too don’t have much confidence heading into this one. Past history and Mizzou’s season this year would indicate we don’t have much of a shot.

The one thing that has me somewhat more optimistic than I’d likely otherwise be is the fact that our front line is starting to play very well. If JO, Jamar, and Gip can all play at a high level (and avoid all having 2 fouls at the 12 minute mark of the first half) then we will have a great chance. Then it just comes down to Will and Rod hitting some of their threes, which they haven’t done a ton of on the road.

My prediction is a familiar score differential, just ten points less on each side – 70-58 Mizzou. Hope I’m wrong, but not a disaster if I am. This game is just gravy right now as long as we take care of business the rest of the way.

That score would be exactly the average annual differential

K-State won by 16 in Manhattan, so subtract 28 and you get a 12-point loss. Seems very possible to me, though I’d probably make it more like 80-68 because I think Mizzou will be looking to force the tempo a little more and probably shooting well.

I'll say MU 80 - KSU 58

I just don’t trust this K-State team to be able to score that much even with a faster paced game.

Any chance of MU looking forward to KU game

and laying an egg against KSU tonight?

Wife’s a Missouri Alum so have to ask…

Tigers may lay an egg, but it will have NOTHING to do with the game on Saturday.

K-State has Mizzou’s full attention tonight.

The noticeable bad blood between some of the players on both teams...

…should be more than enough to keep Missouri’s mind on tonight’s game.

It's not as bad seemingly with the younger guys.

But Jamar and Dixon will certainly keep the venom going for one more evening.

Thinking about this has me kind of nostalgic.

I really like this year’s team but it has by far the least swagger of the Frank Martin era. Beasley/Walker didn’t give a crap about any opponents (“We’ll beat KU in Africa.”), Denis and Lu punched opponents, Jake had a “screw this I’m taking over” attitude, Dom talked as much trash as anyone I’ve ever watched, and now we have Jamar who is a good instigator, but doesn’t quite match the others.

This year’s team is very hard working and plays great defense. But they also seem “nice”. Maybe I’m crazy. Jamar, Rod, Will, JO – they all just seem like really good kids. Something to be proud of, but I do wish we had someone with a large chip on his shoulder who didn’t give a crap about the opponent. I’m thinking that Angel and Gip will be those guys sooner than later.

Anyway, useless ramble. Carry on. EMAW.

I like our chances in Columbia

Unless MU has grown an average of 3" apiece since the last game. If they have, we’ll get smoked. If they haven’t, we have a chance…

Anyone understand the trifecta crap over on their preview?

Weirdos.

Pick, in order, the three players who will finish with the highest

adjusted game score. During the Mike Anderosn days, the point was the parets were so niterchangeable it was nigh imposisble to win. Not so umcu hanymore, in part because we only play 7 freaking players, and because there are more entries.

/weirdo

I think he's speaking English

Mixed with Fingalian.

Can I get an interpreter over here?

/must be from the Ozarks

Yeah, typo disaster.

Would a spell check feature kill you, SBNaton?

most good web browsers include one anymore

maybe you should upgrade

/backwoodsOzarks

Is Steve Moore counted as a full player now?

I think I considered him as 0.5 for the first meeting, but he does seem to be playing a lot better since then.

Yes

Steve gives solid backup minutes now. Plus he is known to draw a charge or two.

I'll just point out

that we lead the all-time series 118-116, so barring a loss tonight and another one to them in the Big 12 tourney, we will own the series lead for quite some time.

Excellent point...but I'm sure they claim the record is different all time
You'd be right.

MU has it at 117-117. Does anybody have the time to filter through the series histories to find the disputed game? Now I’m curious to know if there’s a backstory or if it’s just a clerical error.

pretty sure its a game in the 80's

something about a forfit. I know it gets brought up from time-to-time

from basic research

it appears that K-State claims one more victory at home than Missouri does

from your very own RMN

a breakdown (in 2010) of the all-time record. The dispute shows up in 1913, from a game in Manhattan (probably Nichols Gym)

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