spacer
Ah, my favorite time of the year. You know the best part of basketball season is here when BIG 12 OUTLOOK makes its debut. Follow the jump to see the state of the Big 12 on the first day of conference play.

|
Seed* |
Record* |
Tourney* |
RPI |
Pomeroy |
Sagarin |
Streak |
Best Win** |
Worst Loss** |
Coach |
| Kansas |
1 |
16-2 |
NCAA |
52 |
6 |
6 |
W-3 |
Georgetown |
Davidson |
Bill Self |
| Baylor |
2 |
14-4 |
NCAA |
5 |
12 |
11 |
W-13 |
Saint Mary's |
None |
Scott Drew |
| Missouri |
3 |
14-4 |
NCAA |
40 |
10 |
12 |
W-13 |
Illinois |
None |
Frank Haith |
| Texas |
4 |
12-6 |
NCAA |
72 |
26 |
26 |
W-1 |
Temple |
Oregon State |
Rick Barnes |
| Kansas State |
5 |
12-6 |
NCAA |
31 |
24 |
27 |
W-6 |
Long Beach State |
West Virginia |
Frank Martin |
| Oklahoma |
6 |
7-11 |
NIT |
57 |
51 |
42 |
W-1 |
Oral Roberts |
Cincinnati |
Lon Kruger |
| Texas A&M |
7 |
5-13 |
None |
242 |
89 |
125 |
W-1 |
St. John's |
Rice |
Billy Kennedy |
| Oklahoma State |
8 |
5-13 |
None |
92 |
73 |
83 |
L-1 |
Missouri State |
Stanford |
Travis Ford |
| Iowa State |
9 |
5-13 |
None |
77 |
80 |
73 |
W-5 |
Lehigh |
Drake |
Fred Hoiberg |
| Texas Tech |
10 |
0-16 |
None |
187 |
206 |
192 |
W-2 |
CSU Bakersfield |
DePaul |
Billy Gillispie |
Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)
*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI
spacer
Discussion
Since this is the first installment of the season, there's nothing to discuss in terms of prediction changes from a previous installment.
So far, the model is giving the benefit of the doubt to Baylor, Kansas and Missouri when they're on the road, and occasionally to us, as well. And everyone's predicted to beat Tech, of course.
GAMER: No changes to report.
Pomeroy: No changes to report.
Sagarin: No changes to report.
spacer
Key
Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:
spacer
Predicted Outcomes
| 01.02-01.04 |
A&M @ Baylor (GPS) |
K-State @ Kansas (GPS) |
Texas (PS) @ I-State (G) |
Oklahoma @ Missouri (GPS) |
Tech @ O-State (GPS) |
|
| 01.07 |
Baylor (GPS) @ Tech |
Missouri @ K-State (GPS) |
Kansas (PS) @ Oklahoma (G) |
I-State (S) @ A&M (GP) |
O-State @ Texas (GPS) |
|
| 01.09-01.11 |
Oklahoma @ O-State (GPS) |
Baylor (G) @ K-State (PS) |
Missouri (GPS) @ I-State |
Kansas (GPS) @ Tech |
A&M @ Texas (GPS) |
|
| 01.14 |
Texas @ Missouri (GPS) |
K-State (P) @ Oklahoma (GS) |
Tech @ A&M (GPS) |
O-State @ Baylor (GPS) |
I-State @ Kansas (GPS) |
|
| 01.16-01.18 |
A&M @ Missouri (GPS) |
Baylor (G) @ Kansas (PS) |
Tech @ Oklahoma (GPS) |
O-State @ I-State (GPS) |
Texas @ K-State (GPS) |
|
| 01.21 |
K-State (PS) @ O-State (G) |
Missouri @ Baylor (GPS) |
Kansas (PS) @ Texas (G) |
Oklahoma (S) @ A&M (GP) |
I-State (PS) @ Tech (G) |
|
| 01.23-01.25 |
A&M @ Kansas (GPS) |
Baylor (GPS) @ Oklahoma |
I-State @ Texas (GPS) |
Missouri (GPS) @ O-State |
K-State (GPS) @ Tech |
|
| 01.28 |
Texas @ Baylor (GPS) |
Tech @ Missouri (GPS) |
Kansas (PS) @ I-State (G) |
O-State @ A&M (GPS) |
Oklahoma @ K-State (GPS) |
|
| 01.30-02.01 |
Missouri (G) @ Texas (PS) |
O-State (PS) @ Tech (G) |
K-State (PS) @ I-State (G) |
Baylor (GPS) @ A&M |
Oklahoma @ Kansas (GPS) |
|
| 02.04 |
Baylor (GPS) @ O-State |
A&M @ K-State (GPS) |
I-State @ Oklahoma (GPS) |
Kansas @ Missouri (GPS) |
Tech @ Texas (GPS) |
|
| 02.06-02.08 |
Missouri (GPS) @ Oklahoma |
Texas (PS) @ A&M (G) |
I-State @ O-State (GPS) |
Tech @ K-State (GPS) |
Kansas @ Baylor (GPS) |
|
| 02.11 |
Baylor @ Missouri (GPS) |
K-State @ Texas (GPS) |
O-State @ Kansas (GPS) |
A&M @ I-State (GPS) |
Oklahoma (PS) @ Tech (G) |
|
| 02.13-02.15 |
I-State @ Baylor (GPS) |
Kansas (PS) @ K-State (G) |
A&M (PS) @ Tech (G) |
Texas (P) @ Oklahoma (GS) |
O-State @ Missouri (GPS) |
|
| 02.18 |
K-State @ Baylor (GPS) |
Oklahoma @ I-State (GPS) |
Missouri (GPS) @ A&M |
Texas (PS) @ O-State (G) |
Tech @ Kansas (GPS) |
|
| 02.20-02.22 |
Baylor (G) @ Texas (PS) |
K-State @ Missouri (GPS) |
O-State @ Oklahoma (GPS) |
Tech @ I-State (GPS) |
Kansas (GPS) @ A&M |
|
| 02.25 |
I-State @ K-State (GPS) |
Oklahoma @ Baylor (GPS) |
A&M @ O-State (GPS) |
Missouri @ Kansas (GPS) |
Texas (GPS) @ Tech |
|
| 02.27-02.29 |
Kansas (GPS) @ O-State |
Tech @ Baylor (GPS) |
K-State (PS) @ A&M (G) |
I-State @ Missouri (GPS) |
Oklahoma @ Texas (GPS) |
|
| 03.03 |
O-State @ K-State (GPS) |
Missouri (GPS) @ Tech |
A&M @ Oklahoma (GPS) |
Baylor (GPS) @ I-State |
Texas @ Kansas (GPS) |
|
K-State is #22 in the Coaches Poll to start the Outlook stretch.
Catbacker98 - January 2, 2012
I just updated with the new coaches poll numbers.
BracketCat - January 2, 2012
Losing four straight would be rough, but like the outlook for the most part!
yeahboozin - January 2, 2012
I don't see it happening.
For one thing, we never lose in Austin. For another, we’re gonna make it two straight over KU.
But the games at Baylor and Missouri will be our two hardest of the season. Yes, even harder than Wednesday’s game.
BracketCat - January 2, 2012
Two straight over KU in the OOD, I mean.
In the four years I’ve been doing this, OUTLOOK is usually pessimistic about the Cats through January. Think of it as a worst-case scenario/set of minimum expectations more so than an actual prediction.
BracketCat - January 2, 2012
Just like the fans!
Can you post a giant “Frank knows what he is doing!” sign on the front of BOTC at the start of next season? The O will look like the crap, the D will be sporadic, but they both always come around.
12-6? Not too bad at all but I want more!
Sean T - January 2, 2012
Considering we've never won 12 regular-season Big 12 games in one season, I'd take it.
BracketCat - January 3, 2012
Cool, forgot about these posts ...
Only a couple of things I’ll definitely disagree on:
1) Don’t see Texas making it to 12-6
2) Definitely don’t see ku going 16-2. That’s a hilarious idea, actually.
I suppose I’m slightly more bullish on KSU, moderately more bearish on Texas, and I really don’t see ku as ahead of the pack in any way.
Itchy n Scratchy - January 2, 2012
Aw, I'm hurt. :-) I tend to think of this as my best work. It's certainly my most time-consuming.
BracketCat - January 2, 2012
It's good stuff.
Itchy n Scratchy - January 2, 2012
KenPom still has his mouth firmly attached to Bill Self's member.
Pomeroy is almost singlehandedly keeping them that high in the predictions. It won’t last. And it might change as soon as Wednesday night.
BracketCat - January 2, 2012
I think this fits nicely here (per ESPN's John Gasaway)
xrayxtals - January 2, 2012
Meh. OK read, but he's missing some stuff.
For one thing, he’s underrating our talent. All those players he’s raving about were rated by his own service (ESPN) as 90 or better. By ESPN’s own rankings, Gipson was not an unheralded recruit.
I think it bodes well that he’s lavishing praise on us, but that I still think he’s underselling the Cats. Our ceiling is high indeed.
BracketCat - January 2, 2012
I was thinking the same thing
I get tired of always hearing about talent disparity. And frankly the pre-college-play ratings of players are not all that accurate anyway. If a person has watched Gipson, Angel and the rest of our team and have any knowledge of basketball, they can’t help but agree there is real talent there.
mjk7166 - January 2, 2012
While the article certainly has flaws
I thought the key points were pretty spot on (D, drawing FTs, ORebs).
xrayxtals - January 2, 2012
I forgot to mention:
Big 12 play starts at 6 p.m. today on ESPNU with Texas A&M at No. 5 Baylor.
I expect the Aggies to be thrashed thoroughly. Should be enjoyable.
BracketCat - January 2, 2012
Gamer
Gamer sure likes to be the contrarian, doesn’t it?
giantslor - January 2, 2012
It does seem to overrate the bad teams, and their home advantage, unnecessarily this early in the season.
By February, it usually falls into line, though.
BracketCat - January 2, 2012
Look at this silly review...
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/news?slug=ycn-10779807
What a silly comment regarding K-State non-conference schedule.
Catbacker98 - January 2, 2012
Ha, it's especially silly when you look at what he wrote about Missouri and their non-conference wins
smitty3268 - January 2, 2012
good grief, i hope that guy is 12 years old, for his sake.
Itchy n Scratchy - January 3, 2012
MU
Still not sold.
Tom Koppe - January 3, 2012
Me either, but they were impressive tonight against OU
They’re as thin as KU is though, and not nearly as good inside, so our brand of basketball might work pretty well against them.
smitty3268 - January 4, 2012
OU tried to zone MU.
That’s just stupid. Lon has coached really, really bad in his last two road games.
BracketCat - January 4, 2012
Holy crap, when did you sign up here?
BOTC, take cover. The king of the animated GIFs hath arrived.
BracketCat - January 4, 2012
What happens when they have an off shooting night and they go against a "long" team like KSU.
Answer: Disaster.
Also they better hope Denmon makes it through the whole season without injury because that would start a horrific slide on its own.
Catbacker98 - January 4, 2012
I'm sold that they'll beat the shit out of teams that can't match up with them ...
More precisely, teams that can’t take advantage of the areas where they lack.
Missourah is going to feast on Tech, ISU, OU, OSU, a&m, and UT. I think they lose 2 games at most out of those 12, with a slim majority of those being total blowouts.
They will have serious trouble with KSU. They’ll have trouble with ku’s starters, but if they get into the bench at all … good night. Baylor is plenty talented enough … just a question of whether they’ll be too stupid and just give the game(s) to MU.
ODU showed how glaring the weakness is. But the only non-contender in the Big12 I see potentially giving them trouble is maybe a&m, because they’ve got some horses up front. But overall, they’re still pretty much a dumpster fire right now.
Itchy n Scratchy - January 4, 2012
You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Bring On The Cats to post a comment.