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BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 01.02.12


Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 1.1.2012)


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Ah, my favorite time of the year. You know the best part of basketball season is here when BIG 12 OUTLOOK makes its debut. Follow the jump to see the state of the Big 12 on the first day of conference play.

Star-divide

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Kansas 1 16-2 NCAA 52 6 6 W-3 Georgetown Davidson Bill Self
Baylor 2 14-4 NCAA 5 12 11 W-13 Saint Mary's None Scott Drew
Missouri 3 14-4 NCAA 40 10 12 W-13 Illinois None Frank Haith
Texas 4 12-6 NCAA 72 26 26 W-1 Temple Oregon State Rick Barnes
Kansas State 5 12-6 NCAA 31 24 27 W-6 Long Beach State West Virginia Frank Martin
Oklahoma 6 7-11 NIT 57 51 42 W-1 Oral Roberts Cincinnati Lon Kruger
Texas A&M 7 5-13 None 242 89 125 W-1 St. John's Rice Billy Kennedy
Oklahoma State 8 5-13 None 92 73 83 L-1 Missouri State Stanford Travis Ford
Iowa State 9 5-13 None 77 80 73 W-5 Lehigh Drake Fred Hoiberg
Texas Tech 10 0-16 None 187 206 192 W-2 CSU Bakersfield DePaul Billy Gillispie

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

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Discussion

Since this is the first installment of the season, there's nothing to discuss in terms of prediction changes from a previous installment.

So far, the model is giving the benefit of the doubt to Baylor, Kansas and Missouri when they're on the road, and occasionally to us, as well. And everyone's predicted to beat Tech, of course.

GAMER: No changes to report.

Pomeroy: No changes to report.

Sagarin: No changes to report.

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Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

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Predicted Outcomes

01.02-01.04
A&M
@ Baylor (GPS)
K-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
Texas (PS)
@ I-State (G)
Oklahoma
@ Missouri (GPS)
Tech
@ O-State (GPS)
01.07
Baylor (GPS)
@ Tech
Missouri
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)
I-State (S)
@ A&M (GP)
O-State
@ Texas (GPS)
01.09-01.11
Oklahoma
@ O-State (GPS)
Baylor (G)
@ K-State (PS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ I-State
Kansas (GPS)
@ Tech
A&M
@ Texas (GPS)
01.14
Texas
@ Missouri (GPS)
K-State (P)
@ Oklahoma (GS)
Tech
@ A&M (GPS)
O-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
I-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
01.16-01.18
A&M
@ Missouri (GPS)
Baylor (G)
@ Kansas (PS)
Tech
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
O-State
@ I-State (GPS)
Texas
@ K-State (GPS)
01.21
K-State (PS)
@ O-State (G)
Missouri
@ Baylor (GPS)
Kansas (PS)
@ Texas (G)
Oklahoma (S)
@ A&M (GP)
I-State (PS)
@ Tech (G)
01.23-01.25
A&M
@ Kansas (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
I-State
@ Texas (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ O-State
K-State (GPS)
@ Tech
01.28
Texas
@ Baylor (GPS)
Tech
@ Missouri (GPS)
Kansas (PS)
@ I-State (G)
O-State
@ A&M (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ K-State (GPS)
01.30-02.01
Missouri (G)
@ Texas (PS)
O-State (PS)
@ Tech (G)
K-State (PS)
@ I-State (G)
Baylor (GPS)
@ A&M
Oklahoma
@ Kansas (GPS)
02.04
Baylor (GPS)
@ O-State
A&M
@ K-State (GPS)
I-State
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
Kansas
@ Missouri (GPS)
Tech
@ Texas (GPS)
02.06-02.08
Missouri (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Texas (PS)
@ A&M (G)
I-State
@ O-State (GPS)
Tech
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas
@ Baylor (GPS)
02.11
Baylor
@ Missouri (GPS)
K-State
@ Texas (GPS)
O-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
A&M
@ I-State (GPS)
Oklahoma (PS)
@ Tech (G)
02.13-02.15
I-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
Kansas (PS)
@ K-State (G)
A&M (PS)
@ Tech (G)
Texas (P)
@ Oklahoma (GS)
O-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
02.18
K-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ I-State (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ A&M
Texas (PS)
@ O-State (G)
Tech
@ Kansas (GPS)
02.20-02.22
Baylor (G)
@ Texas (PS)
K-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
O-State
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
Tech
@ I-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ A&M
02.25
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Baylor (GPS)
A&M
@ O-State (GPS)
Missouri
@ Kansas (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Tech
02.27-02.29
Kansas (GPS)
@ O-State
Tech
@ Baylor (GPS)
K-State (PS)
@ A&M (G)
I-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Texas (GPS)
03.03
O-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ Tech
A&M
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ I-State
Texas
@ Kansas (GPS)

0 recs  |  27 comments

Comments

K-State is #22 in the Coaches Poll to start the Outlook stretch.
I just updated with the new coaches poll numbers.
Losing four straight would be rough, but like the outlook for the most part!
I don't see it happening.

For one thing, we never lose in Austin. For another, we’re gonna make it two straight over KU.

But the games at Baylor and Missouri will be our two hardest of the season. Yes, even harder than Wednesday’s game.

Two straight over KU in the OOD, I mean.

In the four years I’ve been doing this, OUTLOOK is usually pessimistic about the Cats through January. Think of it as a worst-case scenario/set of minimum expectations more so than an actual prediction.

Just like the fans!

Can you post a giant “Frank knows what he is doing!” sign on the front of BOTC at the start of next season? The O will look like the crap, the D will be sporadic, but they both always come around.

12-6? Not too bad at all but I want more!

Considering we've never won 12 regular-season Big 12 games in one season, I'd take it.
Cool, forgot about these posts ...

Only a couple of things I’ll definitely disagree on:

1) Don’t see Texas making it to 12-6
2) Definitely don’t see ku going 16-2. That’s a hilarious idea, actually.

I suppose I’m slightly more bullish on KSU, moderately more bearish on Texas, and I really don’t see ku as ahead of the pack in any way.

Aw, I'm hurt. :-) I tend to think of this as my best work. It's certainly my most time-consuming.
forgot about these posts …
KenPom still has his mouth firmly attached to Bill Self's member.

Pomeroy is almost singlehandedly keeping them that high in the predictions. It won’t last. And it might change as soon as Wednesday night.

I think this fits nicely here (per ESPN's John Gasaway)
Nothing was expected from Kansas State this year. Jacob Pullen and his somewhat renowned beard are long gone, and in the preseason the Wildcats were picked to finish sixth in a new-look 10-team Big 12.

That prediction now needs revisiting. Frank Martin’s team is 11-1, and if not for an incredible performance by West Virginia’s Kevin Jones in the Mountaineers’ double-OT win in Wichita on Dec. 8, Kansas State would be 12-0 right now. So how did we not see the Wildcats in the preseason? And can Martin’s team continue its surprising run in a very strong Big 12? Let’s take a look at those questions ….

K-State’s better than expected because the defense is.
There’s been talk around Manhattan this season of better ball movement and of the Wildcats vexing opposing defenses with a new multi-pronged attack, but the truth is that this offense is no better or worse than it was last year. (Note, for example, that there’s no “true” point guard this season. The best candidate for that label, 5-foot-11 freshman Angel Rodriguez, comes off the bench and is still getting a handle on his turnovers.) Instead, if you’re looking for the source of Kansas State’s success this season, you should listen to Jamar Samuels.

Apparently Samuels has a future as an analyst if this whole playing thing doesn’t work out, because the 6-7 senior has been quoted as saying that the Wildcats’ defense is as good as it’s ever been. He’s right. K-State’s defense is much improved over last year. This season, quality opponents (those from the nation’s top 14 conferences), have made just 44 percent of their 2s and 24 percent of their 3s against this defense. What’s most impressive is how K-State has been able to pressure opposing perimeter players as if the Wildcats had an entire wall of shot-blockers lying in wait down in the paint. In truth, 7-foot junior Jordan Henriquez is indeed an outstanding shot-blocker, but he’s on the floor less than 20 minutes a game. Nevertheless, the Cats defend and harass on the perimeter as if Anthony Davis has their backs on every possession. If Martin’s players didn’t foul as often as they do, opponents might never score.

Thomas Gipson is Kansas State in a nutshell.
On paper Gipson is merely K-State’s No. 4 scorer, but in truth he’s as likely to shoot during a given possession as any other Wildcat. His points are limited only by his minutes (23 a game). Gipson’s an absolute monster on the offensive glass and he draws seven fouls for every 40 minutes he plays, but he shoots just 51 percent at the line. In all of the above — the offensive boards, the ability to draw fouls, and the shaky free throw shooting — Gipson is a useful one-player representation of Kansas State. And while it’d be easy to fault the strangely inaccurate 2-point shooting (47 percent) of a 6-7 player who virtually inhales offensive rebounds, we should probably see this glass as half-full. Gipson was an unheralded recruit coming out of high school, yet here he is more or less the focal point of a Top 25 team’s offense. If Martin keeps transforming unheralded recruits into key performers, he’ll attain Bo Ryan-level credibility in this department.

The Wildcats excel at drawing fouls.
In effect, Martin plays a rotation that goes eight deep, and no fewer than five of those players draw at least four fouls per 40 minutes. Samuels and Gipson each draw more than seven. Even an unprepossessing physical specimen like 6-2 sophomore Will Spradling, nominally the Wildcats’ 3-point specialist, draws four fouls per 40 minutes. (Note to Division I: The offensive impact of a good 3-point shooter who can also draw fouls is pretty scary. Encourage that “pure” shooter to hurl himself into the nearest defender on occasion.) Basically, if you can’t draw fouls, you don’t play in Manhattan. It’s true that the effectiveness of this approach has been limited by K-State shooting just 67 percent at the line as a team. Still, the Cats are commonly facing opposing defenses that are in some degree of foul trouble. As a result, those defenses often play cautiously and hesitantly — exactly what a blue-collar offense like Martin’s wants and needs.

Frank Martin: system coach.
Martin’s tenure at Kansas State has been undeniably successful, but I can’t help thinking that the factors behind that success have been somewhat misunderstood. For one thing, he started his head-coaching career as “Bob Huggins’ former assistant,” and he happened to have a certain player named Michael Beasley on his first roster. Then came Pullen and his beard, and it seemed like the do-it-all guard from Chicago was forever winning games in the most dramatic fashion imaginable. It was easy for observers to think that Martin was merely as good as his players. But I think Martin is actually what people admiringly term a “system coach.”

The Frank Martin system is one that makes perfect sense for any team that’s working at a talent deficit relative to its opponents (as the Wildcats will be this season when they play the top teams in the Big 12). K-State is hardly the last word in accuracy from the field, but the Wildcats make opponents shoot even worse and they get to the line even more often than the other team. Play defense, draw fouls, crash the offensive glass: That’s how the Wildcats win games.

Martin says the “challenge with this team has been immaturity” and that they’re “good against the good teams and not so good against the average teams.” So I suppose it’s a good thing in Martin’s eyes that K-State’s performance against “average” teams is now entirely irrelevant. The Wildcats’ next three games line up like this:

at Kansas
vs. Missouri
vs. Baylor

No worries about “immaturity” occurring as a result of that schedule.

When Martin said “The greatest empires of all time have always been defeated from within, not from the outside,” he was talking about his team and the importance of focusing on the task at hand. But he might as well have been talking about his team’s conference. At the time of the Big 12’s greatest apparent peril as a conference — already down to 10 teams; about to say goodbye to Texas A&M and Missouri, and hello to West Virginia and TCU — the league might just have its most exciting title chase in years.

The Jayhawks, Tigers, and Bears are all ranked in the top 20 nationally, and Texas is, as always, loaded with young talent. Meanwhile, Kansas State is turning heads in its own right. Keep an eye on the Big 12 and especially on Kansas State the rest of the season. Both the league and the team are exceeding expectations.
Meh. OK read, but he's missing some stuff.

For one thing, he’s underrating our talent. All those players he’s raving about were rated by his own service (ESPN) as 90 or better. By ESPN’s own rankings, Gipson was not an unheralded recruit.

I think it bodes well that he’s lavishing praise on us, but that I still think he’s underselling the Cats. Our ceiling is high indeed.

I was thinking the same thing

I get tired of always hearing about talent disparity. And frankly the pre-college-play ratings of players are not all that accurate anyway. If a person has watched Gipson, Angel and the rest of our team and have any knowledge of basketball, they can’t help but agree there is real talent there.

While the article certainly has flaws

I thought the key points were pretty spot on (D, drawing FTs, ORebs).

I forgot to mention:

Big 12 play starts at 6 p.m. today on ESPNU with Texas A&M at No. 5 Baylor.

I expect the Aggies to be thrashed thoroughly. Should be enjoyable.

Gamer

Gamer sure likes to be the contrarian, doesn’t it?

It does seem to overrate the bad teams, and their home advantage, unnecessarily this early in the season.

By February, it usually falls into line, though.

Look at this silly review...

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/news?slug=ycn-10779807

What a silly comment regarding K-State non-conference schedule.

Ha, it's especially silly when you look at what he wrote about Missouri and their non-conference wins
good grief, i hope that guy is 12 years old, for his sake.
MU

Still not sold.

Me either, but they were impressive tonight against OU

They’re as thin as KU is though, and not nearly as good inside, so our brand of basketball might work pretty well against them.

OU tried to zone MU.

That’s just stupid. Lon has coached really, really bad in his last two road games.

Holy crap, when did you sign up here?

BOTC, take cover. The king of the animated GIFs hath arrived.

What happens when they have an off shooting night and they go against a "long" team like KSU.

Answer: Disaster.

Also they better hope Denmon makes it through the whole season without injury because that would start a horrific slide on its own.

I'm sold that they'll beat the shit out of teams that can't match up with them ...

More precisely, teams that can’t take advantage of the areas where they lack.

Missourah is going to feast on Tech, ISU, OU, OSU, a&m, and UT. I think they lose 2 games at most out of those 12, with a slim majority of those being total blowouts.

They will have serious trouble with KSU. They’ll have trouble with ku’s starters, but if they get into the bench at all … good night. Baylor is plenty talented enough … just a question of whether they’ll be too stupid and just give the game(s) to MU.

ODU showed how glaring the weakness is. But the only non-contender in the Big12 I see potentially giving them trouble is maybe a&m, because they’ve got some horses up front. But overall, they’re still pretty much a dumpster fire right now.

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