The slight name change for this feature is a result of my realizing that I unintentionally "borrowed" the name of a fellow SBNation blog. Sorry, Chris.
Now on to important business. Click here to enter the 157th annual BOTC Bracket Challenge. The group name is BOTC: Bring On The Cats and the password is BracketCat.
Then follow the jump for discussion of the South Region, which finally is complete as of three hours ago.
Previous Entries:
No. 1 Duke (29-5) vs. No. 16 Arkansas-Pine Bluff (18-15)
March 19 | 6:25 p.m. | Jacksonville
Yeah, no love for Winthrop. If you don't win the play-in game, then you weren't part of the real tournament. Sorry.
Contrary to popular belief, Duke did not draw the easiest region. It's just the region most likely to be prone to upsets.
But this game won't be one of them. Despite our sentimental attachment to the road warriors from Pine Bluff, this should be the end of the road for their epic and historical season.
GAMER: Duke 82, UAPB 61
KenPom: Duke 77, UAPB 51
Sagarin: Duke 83, UAPB 58
No. 2 Villanova (24-7) vs. No. 15 Robert Morris (23-11)
March 18 | 11:30 a.m. | Providence
Villanova is a hard team to figure out. A month ago, everyone rattled off four names without hesitating when discussing potential No. 1 seeds. Somewhere along the way, 'Nova fell out of the picture and Kansas, Kentucky and Syracuse moved on without the Wildcats.
But that good team from earlier in the season didn't just disappear. It merely ran into the difficult part of its schedule in one of the hardest conferences in the nation. This is a team with more returning Final Four experience than any other team in the field, and but for a few games either way, easily could be sitting in Duke's spot and vice versa.
All of which is a short way of saying that Villanova is gonna crush Robert Morris.
GAMER: Villanova 81, Robert Morris 70
KenPom: Villanova 86, Robert Morris 67
Sagarin: Villanova 89, Robert Morris 70
UPSET ALERT: No. 3 Baylor (25-7) vs. No. 14 Sam Houston State (25-7)
March 18 | 1:45 p.m. | New Orleans
I love Baylor. Not in the romantic sense, but in the bracketish sense. I was high on Baylor as a sleeper even before the field was unveiled and when I saw the Bears' draw, I giggled. Seriously.
A likely second-round matchup with Notre Dame, a team that lost to Loyola Marymount? Oh, sure, everyone's in love with the Fighting Irish now thanks to their little winning streak, but I think that's a team with which Scott Drew gladly will take his chances.
Then you could get Villanova, a team that stumbled down the stretch, and Duke, the weakest No. 1 seed? Uh, yeah, where do I sign up?
Baylor will bother those teams with its length, big-time. Duke is big, but not too athletic, and 'Nova has almost no post play. The Bears are a team built for tournament play, as they showed last season in the Big 12 Tournament and the NIT. And they'll have a virtual home court in Houston. What was the committee thinking in this region?
But first the Bears have to get past Sam Houston State, and therein lies the challenge. Nothing on paper would lead you to suspect Baylor could lose this game, but just like K-State, they're completely new to this level of expectation.
Plus, there's always an upset each year that just comes out of left field. I have a weird gut feeling that this could be it. Remember what happened the last time a No. 3 seed faced the Southland champ? Northwestern State 64, Iowa 63, that's what.
I'm not saying it will happen. I'm just throwing it out there for discussion. By the way, what the hell is a Bearkat?
GAMER: Baylor 74, SHSU 67
KenPom: Baylor 82, SHSU 69
Sagarin: Baylor 79, SHSU 66
UPSET ALERT: No. 4 Purdue (27-5) vs. No. 13 Siena (27-6)
March 19 | 1:30 p.m. | Spokane
OK, seriously, this one is too easy, right?
Siena, the team that has advanced to the second round the last two seasons, already having beat a Big Ten team to do so one year, and is woefully under-seeded, versus a Purdue team that without its best player was held in the 40s at home against Michigan State and to 11 points in the first half against Minnesota?
And they're both flying out to freaking Washington?
You can't trust the computer numbers on this one. Purdue was a very good team before Robbie Hummel went down and it was on the fast track for the No. 1 seed that Duke now holds. But not anymore.
Trust your eyes. Sometimes it is that easy.
GAMER: Purdue 66, Siena 61
KenPom: Purdue 71, Siena 65
Sagarin: Purdue 69, Siena 62
UPSET ALERT: No. 5 Texas A&M (23-9) vs. No. 12 Utah State (27-7)
March 19 | 3:45 p.m. | Spokane
The Aggie fight is the toughest game to pick in the whole tournament, in my opinion.
It has all the makings of a classic 5-12 upset. Utah State is a very good mid-major and virtually unbeatable at home.
Fortunately for Texas A&M, the game's in Spokane, not Logan. But will aTm have enough to win that far away from home? Other than Donald Sloan and Bryan Davis, there isn't much there to make you go, "Wow."
Yet somehow, the Texas Aggies got to 11-5 in the Big 12. That has to count for something.
Go with your heart on this one. Or flip a coin. It's a toughie.
GAMER: Texas A&M 67, Utah State 66
KenPom: Utah State 63, Texas A&M 62
Sagarin: Texas A&M 67, Utah State 64
UPSET ALERT: No. 6 Notre Dame (23-11) vs. No. 11 Old Dominion (26-8)
March 18 | 11:25 a.m. | New Orleans
All of these Notre Dame lovers that crawled out of the woodwork the past few days might want to consider that the Fighting Irish might not even make it out of the first round. In a region full of damn solid mid-majors, Old Dominion might be the best.
After all, the Monarchs waltzed into Georgetown's arena and beat the Hoyas straight-up earlier this season. That is a quality win.
Notre Dame's not a bad team. But neither is ODU. I think I lean toward the underdog on this one.
GAMER: Old Dominion 61, Notre Dame 58
KenPom: Old Dominion 65, Notre Dame 64
Sagarin: Notre Dame 64, Old Dominion 63
UPSET ALERT: No. 7 Richmond (26-8) vs. No. 10 Saint Mary's (26-5)
March 18 | 1:50 p.m. | Providence
When the lower-seeded team has a better overall record, is predicted to win by all three computers, seems like it should win based on the "gut" test and, oh, by the way, thrashed Gonzaga, the penultimate underdog program, in its tournament championship, you probably should pick that lower-seeded team.
Which is no disrespect to Richmond. The Spiders are a good A-10 team that beat a very good A-10 team in Xavier.
And they'll probably have the home crowd. But I don't think they have an answer for Omar Samhan.
GAMER: St. Mary's 73, Richmond 70
KenPom: St. Mary's 68, Richmond 67
Sagarin: St. Mary's 85, Richmond 84
No. 8 California (23-10) vs. No. 9 Louisville (20-12)
March 19 | 8:45 p.m. | Jacksonville
It's a typical 8-9 match-up. Louisville swept Syracuse, so winning this game would not be an upset. Hell, the Cardinals advancing to beat Duke probably wouldn't be an upset, either.
But Cal is underrated because of how crappy the Pac-10 was. For a while, the Golden Bears competed with KU in Lawrence, and they had a good RPI all year long. Plus, if you're in a crappy league, at least put some distance between it and you, which is precisely what Cal did in the regular season.
As with most other games in this region, go with your gut or your trusty quarter. You probably can't go wrong.
GAMER: Cal 75, Louisville 68
KenPom: Cal 78, Louisville 75
Sagarin: Cal 75, Louisville 74
0 recs | 27 comments
Uh-oh
We have two outright disagreements this time, and a “my coin was tails, not heads” as well.
I think Duke will be dispatching Louisville, not Cal; I think Richmond gets past SMC before falling to ‘Nova. And not only do I think Baylor survives the first round, they’ll also survive Old Dominion. And ’Nova.
And Duke. That’s right, I have the Bears playing in April. (I actually have them facing KSU for the title in my brackets, but that’s because I refuse to countenance the idea of having my bracket depend on us losing to KU. I mean, something like that might well be deemed treasonous. I’d rather lose
moneyface than be sensible.)As for the 4-5 sections, you already know I’ve got Siena pegged for the first round, and my coin landed on A&M as well. I think A&M gets past the Saints, though, before succumbing to the mystique and aura of the Blue Devils.
jonfmorse - March 17, 2010
Note the poll
Baylor is a very popular pick. I find it hard to argue with the group logic. They’re a match-up nightmare for everyone in that bracket.
BracketCat - March 17, 2010
Just filled out my bracket
and I’m still not comfortable with the West and South brackets. I’d prefer to just skip them all-together.
mystman995 - March 17, 2010
The South will wreck everyone's bracket before it's all said and done.
BracketCat - March 17, 2010
The 5/12 and 4/13 matchups in the South are the hardest
picks in the whole tourney. Seriously, all four teams have a legit shot at making the Sweet 16. I’m picking A&M, but just because I’m being a Big 12 homer. Utah St, Purdue, or Sienna could just as easily be there.
GCat - March 17, 2010
Yup
And they’re all the way out in Spokane. That kind of travel can produce crazy effects.
BracketCat - March 17, 2010
Thanks for setting up the ESPN group BC
Sean T - March 17, 2010
+100
VegasCat07 - March 17, 2010
No prob
Now I just need to figure out what the prize will be… :-D
BracketCat - March 17, 2010
The K-State Collegian Sports blog has another NCAA tournament challenge:
Link
Pick 8 teams…points based on seeding & wins
MadCat - March 17, 2010
If you guys want, I can score the thing differently.
I’m a fan of the “seed +1” model, where you get 14 points if Siena wins, 13 points if Utah State wins, etc. It rewards those who dare to pick upsets, obviously.
Maybe I’ll do a poll on it later and see what everyone wants.
BracketCat - March 17, 2010
I think that would change my bracket some. :D
MadCat - March 17, 2010
You've still got time...
:-D
BracketCat - March 17, 2010
I would _certainly_ need to alter
my bracket if we are not using the 32 pts total per round scoring style…
:-o
VegasCat07 - March 17, 2010
I think I'll just leave it like it is
BracketCat - March 17, 2010
I threw in another bracket for Barack Obama...
It’s “Mr. President”…you can throw it out or whatever.
MadCat - March 17, 2010
Excellent
I think we all want to see how his Final Four prediction does.
I’ll probably be doing three myself, but I’ll only score one of them. It will be marked that way, of course.
BracketCat - March 17, 2010
I've got three for work
but I used my most logical one for this pool. The other two consist of an upset heavy bracket and a straight chalk bracket. There’s no way I could lose then right?
mystman995 - March 17, 2010
Out of 9,000,000,000 possibilities
you did cover 2 real common ones, plus your own ideas.
I’m sure you have it cornered now! ;-)
VegasCat07 - March 17, 2010
Actually....
There’s ~16,000,000,000,000,000,000 ways to fill out a bracket (~32,000,000,000,000,000,000 if you include the play-in game). Just to put that number in perspective, if every single person on Earth filled out 1 billion (1,000,000,000) brackets, and no 2 of those brackets were the same, it would still exhaust less than half of the possibilities.
grmann - March 17, 2010
I think my number is closer if you
ignore the 1v16 and 2v15 games… or maybe just the 1v16 games.
W0-L100 is good enough for me to qualify as not really a serious bracket if you have a 16 over a 1. :-)
VegasCat07 - March 17, 2010
Not really,
Even giving you the 1v16 matchups only gets the number of possibilities down to ~1,000,000,000,000,000,000 and assuming all the 2s win puts it at ~650,000,000,000,000,000.
Your number is about right for the possibilities in a 34 game tournament.
grmann - March 17, 2010
Doggonnit, slipped an extra zero in
Assuming all 1 and 2 seeds win their first games gives you 65,000,000,000,000,000 possible brackets.
grmann - March 17, 2010
I say we each get to submit 1,000,000,000
different brackets… ready?… GO! ;-)
VegasCat07 - March 17, 2010
That's about what I've got
My real one, my upset one and a fantasy one where it’s all Big 12 and Big East teams winning.
BracketCat - March 17, 2010
True Believers
Are those voters that went UAPB to win this region…all of us who didn’t vote that way should be ashamed.
EMAWrising - March 17, 2010
Heads up
I’ve added the predicted scores for Duke-UAPB, which just came out today.
BracketCat - March 17, 2010
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