BIG 12 TOURNAMENT OUTLOOK: 03.10.10 (Open Game Thread)

by BracketCat on Mar 10, 2010 9:00 AM CST in Men's Basketball

For today, at least, this will be short and sweet — a quick poll of Mr. Sagarin to see who should win today, just in time for it all to get shot to hell by that wonderful phenomenon known as parity. (Pomeroy and GAMER do not project postseason games.) Just for fun, I'll make up some predicted scores, too.

All of today's games will air on the Big 12 Network:

No. 9 Texas Tech 79, No. 8 Colorado 78 (11:30 a.m.)
No. 5 Missouri 87, No. 12 Nebraska 77 (2 p.m.)
No. 7 Oklahoma State 84, No. 10 Oklahoma 77 (6 p.m.)
No. 6 Texas 88, No. 11 Iowa State 79 (8:20 p.m.)

K-State fans probably should root for Iowa State, Missouri and Oklahoma. That would give the Wildcats the easiest potential path to the finals. I don't think a rematch with either Baylor or Texas really is something we want to see.

I also don't think the winner of Colorado-Texas Tech is relevant — I can't see either one of those teams getting past Kansas tomorrow.

As I mentioned earlier, feel free to use this entry as a live discussion thread today. I'll try to pop in throughout the day, but a BlackBerry Curve only can do so much — and I've got basketball to watch, dammit.

0 recs | 55 comments

Comments

Must be new this year for kenpom

but the post-season conference tourney games are projected… Not sure if that will hold true to the Big Dance.

VegasCat07 - March 10, 2010 reply

I didn't see that on the team pages

Does he have them somewhere else?

BracketCat - March 10, 2010 reply

Basketball prospectus has log5 projections for the probability of each team winning.

Here

Warden11 - March 10, 2010 reply

Thanks

BracketCat - March 10, 2010 via mobile reply

Wed Mar 10 (73) Iowa St. W, 79-70 74 80% Neutral

I just went to www.kenpom.com and hit “Texas” for their team page and copy/pasted the line below “Big 12 Conference Tournament” in the running-schedule section…?

VegasCat07 - March 10, 2010 reply

Well, that sure wasn't there yesterday when I checked it.

BracketCat - March 10, 2010 via mobile reply

First Round Predictions

Tech, Mizzou, Okie State, and Texas.

Yeah, I went out on a limb here didn’t I? This is the year of the haves and have nots, and the have nots won’t win a game against the haves.

mystman995 - March 10, 2010 reply

But if I got good odds to ISU winning outright over UT

I would take them.

Sean T - March 10, 2010 reply

What kind of odds are we talking about?

I’m not a gambling man, so I wouldn’t put much on it.

mystman995 - March 10, 2010 reply

I would think the haves have it, but

every year there seems to be a surprise or two. I hope Iowa State is that team and beats Texas and Baylor (yea, long shot) so we can pound them to get to the championship.

mjk7166 - March 10, 2010 reply

Maybe this year's different

since there’s a huge gap between 7 and 8 unlike year’s past. I just don’t see the 8-12 seeds doing anything. The first round bye is key.

mystman995 - March 10, 2010 reply

I just don't want to have to play

OSU and Baylor to get to Kansas. Holy crap…we’d deserve a 1 seed if we beat all three in 3 days.

mjk7166 - March 10, 2010 reply

I agree

I don’t WANT to play those teams, but I’m not going to predict anything like that.

OU-ISU-NU would be the easiest, but it doesn’t do anything for us regarding the real tournament. It will actually drop our RPI.

If (and that’s a big if..) we were to beat OSU, BU, AND KU WHILE Duke, ‘Nova, Ohio State, and West Virginia drop out early in their conterence tournaments, a No. 1 seed should be ours. That’s not likely going to happen since it’s not entirely in our control.

The ISU loss and not being able to steal one from KU tremendously hurts our case for a No. 1 seed. Regardless of how we do in the conference tourney, a 2 seed is probably our ceiling as far as seeding goes.

mystman995 - March 10, 2010 reply

Not that there's anything wrong with that

After not being in the NCAA field last year, I am fine with a #2 seed this year. I do hope to see us play well and give a little bit of effort and come away with at least a Sweet 16 on our resume. Less would be disappointing and more would be great. Next year I hope for more from this team though.

wabasher - March 10, 2010 reply

CU-TECH just started

CU up 2-0 with a quick layup by Releford.

mystman995 - March 10, 2010 reply

Oh, and this game is also

the most irrelevant game of the tourney.

mystman995 - March 10, 2010 reply

And probably the least well attended

Pretty dead in here.

Burks had a sick reverse dunk on a breakaway, tho. A bit of showing off for the hometown fans.

BracketCat - March 10, 2010 via mobile reply

I went home for lunch today and caught a little of the game.

The dunk was pretty nice, but the game itself is awful. Lots of steals and no whistles(not that it’s a bad thing). Kind of like a street game with the pace I suppose.

And you’re right, that place is dead for that game. You can make out everything the cheerleaders are saying it’s that quiet. That’ll happen for an 11.30 game though. This isn’t the Big 10/11.

mystman995 - March 10, 2010 reply

I posted this on another thread, but I figured this one will get more views

Has anyone had any luck in past years getting tickets after other teams have lost for a cheaper price? How did you end up finding them?

goksucats - March 10, 2010 reply

Losing fans are your best bet

But you gotta get to them before the scalpers do. Get there early.

TB - March 10, 2010 reply

CU out of the gate fast, up 13-5 on Tech

Welcome to the Cory Higgins and Marcus Relephorde show.

mystman995 - March 10, 2010 reply

Go 'Buffs!!

VegasCat07 - March 10, 2010 reply

or not

Tech starts the half on an 8-0 run. CU looks like crap now.

BracketCat - March 10, 2010 via mobile reply

Roberson was on fire

and CU is looking more like year’s past.

mystman995 - March 10, 2010 reply

Hard to beat a team twice in 5 days, especially when you put 100 on them last time and have virtually no fans in attendance.

BracketCat - March 10, 2010 via mobile reply

Well Tech's up 18 with about 6 minutes to go

Looks like I’m 1 for 1 today.

mystman995 - March 10, 2010 reply

me, too

BracketCat - March 10, 2010 via mobile reply

Mizzou-Nebraska game kicking off

Hey Bracket – is there a decent MU crowd?

mystman995 - March 10, 2010 reply

Actually, it’s surprisingly weak.

If KU was playing, this place would be solid blue.

BracketCat - March 10, 2010 via mobile reply

Somebody needs to go to Mizzou's dorm room

And wake the Tigers up, because it looks like they overslept and missed the bus.

Nebraska leads 29-16.

BracketCat - March 10, 2010 via mobile reply

Looks like NU is shooting about as well as they did against us in the Bram

Wow.

WillieWannabe - March 10, 2010 reply

It's a disadvantage to play during the day

I’m glad our game is evening. I can’t go but I hope the place is purple packed.

mjk7166 - March 10, 2010 reply

Session 1 recap

What I Liked

Texas Tech’s resiliency: The Red Raiders couldn’t have started the game worse, but they recovered and, by the end of the game, were the more dominant team.

Missouri fans’ rage: Hey, guess what, Tigers? This ain’t Mizzou Arena and you can’t get away with hacking here. Each increasingly brazen call by John Higgins triggered an even louder series of boos, but for the longest time, that was the only “cheering.” Then it finally got loud in the second half, only to be silenced by a Nebraska 3. It got loud again, only to end with ANOTHER 3 AND a foul. Game. Set. Match. Enjoy your 9 seed, Mizzou.

Nebraska’s moxie: As an eyewitness, let me assure you that the team that played better defense, collected more 50-50 balls and just plain fought its ass off more (plus made more shots) won.

What I Didn’t Like

Sprint Center’s retarded new exit policy: The dumb bastards closed off the Grand Boulevard exit and made us all go out the Oak Street exit or the small staircase doors. It took 20 fucking minutes to get out and it was claustrophobic as hell. What if there had been a goddamn fire? So not only do you need to get here an hour early because it takes a ridiculously long time to get in, but now you almost have to leave before the second game ends in order to have time to eat between sessions. Stupefying.

BracketCat - March 10, 2010 via mobile reply