This week, we'll be recording the preseason predictions of the editorial staff here at BOTC. In the effort of being completely transparent (as is the theme of the university right now), we wanted to get these out as soon as fall camp starts before, presumably, players on our team and other teams are lost for the season for one reason or another. That way, we can always go back and say, "Uh yeah, I had no idea the third string gunner was going to get injured. Otherwise, my prediction would have been WAY different."
To make this a fair exercise, we'll be presenting these in alphabetical order. So, today, we'll start with BracketCat.
Analysis:
09/05 - Massachusetts (W)
09/12 - @Louisiana (W)
09/19 - @UCLA (L)
09/26 - Tennessee Tech (W)
10/03 - vs. Iowa State (W)
10/10 - @Texas Tech (L)
10/17 - Texas A&M (W)
10/24 - Colorado (W)
10/31 - @Oklahoma (L)
11/07 - Kansas (T)
11/14 - Missouri (T)
11/21 - @Nebraska (L)
I'll just break this down game by game.
Massachusetts and Tennessee Tech are wins. To suggest otherwise is a non-starter argument.
The worst defense I have ever watched in person still found ways to persevere against Louisiana and Iowa State in 2008. Louisiana lost Desormeaux and the RB, Iowa State is in disarray and ... most importantly ... we canned Ron Prince. Those are wins.
Stunning stat of the day: Since the 2003 Big 12 Championship, K-State is 5-20 on the road or at neutral sites. Even worse, the Wildcats have not won more than one road or neutral game in a season since 2003. Thus, I think winning both a road game (Louisiana) and a neutral game (ISU) would represent a significant step forward, and we should be damned content with that.
That means we're losing the rest of the roadies, though. Since Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Nebraska all shit-canned us last season, I doubt anyone will argue with me on those. (Plus Snyder only has a handful of wins in those three stadiums, versus a whole slew of ugly losses.)
The tricky one is UCLA. I know the GoPowercat Kool-Aid Brigade is gung-ho about predicting a win on the West Coast, but I just don't see it. It's too early in the season, UCLA has some pretty decent talent, they will most likely make a Year 1-to-Year 2 jump, and even when we win the Left Coast, we usually look like crap doing so (USC 2001, anyone?). I'll gladly trade a UCLA loss for a win over KU, however, as long as we acquit ourselves better than we did at Fresno State.
Texas A&M will be improved, and given the jinx Snyder has had against them lately (no wins since 1997), I can see a scenario that has them winning in Manhattan. But I can't get over the fact that Prince beat Sherman, badly, in College Station, to snap that streak. I feel pretty comfortable chalking this one up as a win.
Same goes for Colorado, a game we ABSOLUTELY should have won last season. When looking for games to project improvement from the past season, my rule is to look for close losses on the road to teams you will now face at home. BTW, this season could be Hawkins' swan song if he can't pull off some upsets here and there.
That brings us to Kansas and Missouri. The media will have us losing both, but both Bill Snyder and I don't give a snot what the media think. Those are the two most important games of the year to him, I suspect. You don't win 11 straight over one and 12 straight over the other if they aren't.
I'll tentatively call it a split: Let's say we find a way to knock off the Jayhawks in the midst of a brutal close to their schedule, and then drop a close one to Mizzou as Pinkel nets his first win over the Legend ever. But I reserve the right to amend that prediction as the season wears on. I could see us dropping both, but that would make for an 0-4 finish to the season, and that's not a Snyder statistic - it's a Prince one.
One fundamental fact keeps coming back to me, though. Snyder teams are ALWAYS better in November than in September. Sometimes unrecognizably so. I think it's far more likely that we find a way to WIN both games than to lose them both. And if we do, we're 8-4 (5-3), and either tied with Nebraska for 1st or in sole possession (if they finish 4-4). That would be Coach of the Year-worthy.
Even if we do drop one of the two, we'll be 7-5 (4-4) and bowling for the first time in three years. I'll take it. But mark my words - we'll probably have to win one of those two to get there, because 6-6 won't get us to the postseason this year.
As you can tell, I'm cautiously high on Daniel Thomas now that he has a locker, and I think he could be the key X-factor that puts us in a Phil Steele-esque hunt for the North. Although I think Jeffrey Fitzgerald will have an impact, two years of not playing have to take a toll. I think his main role will be freeing up Brandon Harold to do even more damage than he did last year.
And let's throw some love to the special teams, guys. Going from dependable Tim Reyer to the Fulhage & Pierson Clown Show was one of the most painful things about 2008. Here's hoping Doerr erases some of those memories...
Honorable mentions to Brandon Banks, the fastest Mighty-Mite receiver to ever don the purple, and Joshua Moore, who I honestly think could be a threat to depart for the NFL after a season under Vic Koenning's tutelage.
0 recs | 16 comments
Chalk me up as a card carrying member
of the GoPowercat Kool-Aid brigade. You really think that UCLA game will be too tough. They have Neuheisel right? I wonder what Snyderman’s record against him is.
Solid analysis Bracketcat. Now you have me all jacked up to see what Daniel Thomas can do. I’m just gonna need someone to talk me off the ledge of section 420 if things go tits up.
rydonmf - August 11, 2009
They had like 17 quarterbacks injured last year
And they’re in the heart of a California recruiting gold mine. More importantly, they have Norm Chow and DeWayne Walker. That program is gonna take off some time. Maybe not next season, but eventually.
Can they legitimately challenge USC? Hell no. But can they give us serious trouble, in the 3rd game of the season, when we’re still learning new systems? Yeah.
Saying it’s a sure win is just being delusional. At best, it’s 50-50, and I’d still give them the home edge because of what our travel schedule will look like.
BracketCat - August 11, 2009
I think Banks would be my Special Teams MVP for punt returns.
Not to take away anything from Doerr…he really boomed those punts in the Spring Game. I wonder how far he can hit the field goals.
MadCat - August 11, 2009
I would agree
Except that I think Tramaine Thompson could prove to be even more valuable on special teams. We’ll see. We certainly have a lot of speed to throw back there and see who’s effective.
Besides, it all a moot point. For the next two seasons, Corey Adams basically has it in the bag… ;-)
BracketCat - August 11, 2009
Wow...
That was my exacty prediction. You must be really smart! The great thing about it is going to Lincoln on Nov 21 will mean a tie for the north more than likely with a win. Not that I think we will win, but just the idea is fun.
mjk7166 - August 11, 2009
I hope so
That series is a hell of a lot more fun where there’s something on the line. Watching a 5-7 Callahan team bitch-slap a 5-7 Prince team for three-and-a-half hours was like water torture.
BracketCat - August 11, 2009
Daniel Thomas
Great writeup. Maybe a little more optimistic than I am, but that might be because I’m out of the loop and no very little about Daniel Thomas. He’s a QB, right? Is he gonna start over Coffman? Will he really be the best player on offense – what does that say about our offense?
Could someone point me to some literature on the guy in relation to KSU so I can get caught up. Thanks.
bludevil33 - August 11, 2009
Thomas will start out at RB
I would bet money that we do not see Daniel Thomas line up as QB this year, other than in a Wildcat formation. Not because of his skill set, but more because he arrived on campus just a few weeks ago. He will take a year to just get comfortable with the system (I know it’s new for everybody but arriving late doesn’t help), and Coffman and Gregory are going to be tough to beat from that aspect.
I see Thomas as our starting RB by the UCLA game, if not before. Give him 20-25 touches per game, including passes, screens, and out of the Wildcat, and he should be a definite upgrade for our running game.
EMAW - August 11, 2009
Think Darren McFadden with a better throwing arm
Or Michael Bishop Lite, although I hate to put those kind of expectations on him.
BracketCat - August 11, 2009
Daniel Thomas
I agree that he will be the starting running back after a couple games, but I also think Snyder will use him in other formations. His stats were not amazing in juco but it sounds like anyone who’s played with him raves. It might be wise to at least line him up as QB at times to keep teams on their toes. Either way, I think if our QB can be even a little consistent our offense with Thomas, Lamark Brown and Aubrey Quarles all four star athletes is underrated at this point. With Banks and those 3 we have a lot of weapons.
mjk7166 - August 11, 2009
You could even throw Mastrud in there as well
Next year will be even better if Harper ends up finding his groove as QB during his redshirt year. Him, Broderick Smith, Lamark, and Banks on the field makes K-State a tough team to defend through the air.
EMAW - August 11, 2009
Except Banks is a senior
Sorry to bust your bubble. But at least we get Thompson as an understudy.
And don’t forget about Hubert and Flanders and DeMarcus Robinson. Speed kills.
BracketCat - August 11, 2009
*Hoping DeMarcus stays committed.
MadCat - August 12, 2009
yeah
decommitters suck.
mystman995 - August 12, 2009
It's like they don't care about my feelings.
MadCat - August 12, 2009
D'oh
Thank you for correcting my oversight. Replace Banks with “Tremaine Thompson”.
EMAW - August 12, 2009
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