Bring On The Cats

As a K-State fan, I have to say - the events that took place Monday and Wednesday really, really sucked.

As the proprietor of Big 12 Outlook, I'm even more unhappy. Hit the jump to see how I whiffed on half my predictions this week.

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to Pomeroy rating

Discussion

It's time to do the Bill Self Shuffle! Kansas' win in Norman reaffirmed their status as the superpower of the league and likely paved the way to a fifth straight conference championship for the Jayhawks.

That development, coupled with Missouri's projected win over Oklahoma next Wednesday, means that Texas cost the Sooners a trophy, two spots on the seedline in Oklahoma City and probably a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance when they knocked Blake Griffin silly. Ouch.

The other major change this week was Texas A&M's unexpected win in Lincoln, which allowed them to jump the Huskers for the No. 7 seed. K-State's loss in Columbia, while ugly, had little impact on the projections as Big 12 Outlook has been predicting that outcome all season.

I still think Oklahoma State is something of a fraud, having built its recent streak with wins over hapless teams like Baylor, Colorado, Iowa State and Texas Tech. I stand by my prediction that we will win in Stillwater to finish 10-6 and claim a first-round bye. Have faith, Wildcats.

A quick analysis of the above chart yields three categories:

1. THE GOOD: Obviously Kansas and Missouri are the hottest teams in the Big 12, and Oklahoma State is the trendy bubble pick despite having beat no one of substance, but Iowa State and Texas A&M saw very nice bumps to their projected records and computer numbers this week, too.
2. THE BAD: Clearly, Oklahoma had a bad week. Nebraska, once one of the surprises of the league, has come back to earth a little by losing three of its last four. And despite its two-game winning streak, Texas' numbers continue to plummet, which probably guarantees them a No. 9 seed or lower in the NCAA Tournament.
3. THE UGLY: Colorado is quite possibly one of the worst modern college basketball teams I have seen. Yet they might actually be able to win Saturday in Waco, which says a lot about how bad Baylor is playing. Just how bad are the Bears? Consider that their Pomeroy ranking dropped sufficiently this week to label them the worst loss Oklahoma State and Texas A&M have suffered. Hell, Iowa State beat them and they aren't even considered the Cyclones' best win! That's appalling...

There were no changes in the Pomeroy or Sagarin projections this week.

Self-Evaluation

Big 12 Outlook was a paltry 3-3 this week, missing every Monday and Tuesday game. This ties the 01.29.09 edition as my worst predictive effort yet.

As you can see below, I like Oklahoma to win at Texas Tech, even though they are shorthanded without Blake Griffin and Juan Pattillo, while the other five home teams should be able to defend their courts on Saturday.

On paper, Missouri and Texas would seem to be the biggest threats to pull a road upset, but I say watch out for Colorado. Baylor is playing like complete crap, having lost eight of their last nine, and if the Buffaloes are ever going to win a conference road game, this might be the one.

Cumulative pick record: 59-19 (.756)

Key

• P - Ken Pomeroy's ratings (he predicts a probability outcome for each game remaining)
• R - Random coin flip, generated online using a virtual U.S. quarter, Delaware design (heads = home team, tails = road team)
• S - Jeff Sagarin's composite rankings (home court advantage is taken into account)

Obviously, R serves only as a tiebreaker, so it is only listed when there is a split between P and S.

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order.

Predicted Outcomes