I'd like to offer some kind of reasoned and insightful analysis for this edition of Big 12 Outlook, but all I could come up with is this:
Jayhawks, burn in Hell.
|
Seed* |
Record* |
RPI |
Pomeroy |
Sagarin |
Streak |
Best Win** |
Worst Loss** |
Coach |
| Oklahoma |
1 |
14-2 |
2 |
14 |
5 |
W-13 |
Purdue |
Arkansas |
Jeff Capel |
| Kansas |
2 |
14-2 |
12 |
11 |
17 |
W-1 |
Washington |
UMass |
Bill Self |
| Missouri |
3 |
13-3 |
17 |
8 |
10 |
W-5 |
Kansas |
Nebraska |
Mike Anderson |
| Texas |
4 |
11-5 |
41 |
25 |
28 |
W-2 |
UCLA |
Arkansas |
Rick Barnes |
| Kansas State |
5 |
9-7 |
77 |
38 |
50 |
L-1 |
Missouri |
Oregon |
Frank Martin |
| Oklahoma State |
6 |
8-8 |
38 |
48 |
45 |
W-1 |
Tulsa |
Texas A&M |
Travis Ford |
| Nebraska |
7 |
8-8 |
64 |
63 |
68 |
L-1 |
Missouri |
UMBC |
Doc Sadler |
| Baylor |
8 |
7-9 |
52 |
54 |
46 |
W-1 |
Arizona State |
Texas Tech |
Scott Drew |
| Texas A&M |
9 |
6-10 |
51 |
69 |
65 |
L-3 |
Arizona |
Tulsa |
Mark Turgeon |
| Iowa State |
10 |
3-13 |
141 |
100 |
107 |
L-1 |
Houston |
SDSU |
Greg McDermott |
| Texas Tech |
11 |
2-14 |
112 |
107 |
102 |
L-2 |
New Mexico |
Lamar |
Pat Knight |
| Colorado |
12 |
1-15 |
220 |
163 |
194 |
L-5 |
Iowa State |
Montana State |
Jeff Bzdelik |
Note: As any of these numbers change, I will color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)
*Predicted
**According to Pomeroy rating
Discussion
I guess the upside to an 11-0 week on picks is that the projections don't change at all. We're in a dogfight with Texas for the No. 4 seed, and that's all there is to it. However, I almost think the No. 5 seed would be better because it would give us an easy extra win over Colorado. We need all the wins we can get now to impress the committee.
I still think we can steal a game at either Columbia or Stillwater to get to 10-6 for the third straight season, but if Texas gets that win over Oklahoma, 10-6 still may not get us a bye. At any rate, it's clear we are going to finish much better than where we were picked preseason, as long as we don't fall apart in the wake of this latest loss.
There were no changes in the Pomeroy or Sagarin projections this week.
Self-Evaluation
Big 12 Outlook was 6-0 again on Saturday. That's 11-0 for the week in total, if you're counting. Unfortunately, both Pomeroy and Sagarin were right about KU's chances in Manhattan. This won't be the start of another streak, though. These players will play harder than you can imagine when next the Jayhawks visit the Octagon of Doom.
As you can see below, Big 12 Outlook likes Kansas and Nebraska to win home games against woeful Iowa State and Colorado, as well as Oklahoma State and Texas to nab crucial road wins against rivals Texas Tech and Texas A&M.
Key
Obviously, R serves only as a tiebreaker, so it is only listed when there is a split between P and S.
Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order.
Predicted Outcomes
| 01.10 |
61 Tech
73 Baylor |
67 I-State
75 Texas |
61 Oklahoma
53 K-State |
51 Missouri
56 Nebraska |
61 A&M
72 O-State |
|
| 01.12-01.14 |
63 Texas
78 Oklahoma |
71 K-State
87 Kansas |
53 Nebraska
65 I-State |
62 Colorado
107 Missouri |
73 Baylor
84 A&M |
|
| 01.17 |
92 O-State
98 Baylor (OT) |
73 Kansas
56 Colorado |
46 I-State
77 Missouri |
51 K-State
73 Nebraska |
69 Oklahoma
63 A&M |
71 Texas
49 Tech |
|
| 01.19-01.21 |
53 A&M
73 Kansas |
55 Colorado
63 Tech |
83 Baylor
65 K-State |
97 Missouri
95 O-State |
61 Nebraska
72 Oklahoma |
|
| 01.24 |
77 K-State
75 Colorado (OT) |
82 Kansas
67 I-State |
86 Tech
97 Missouri |
76 O-State
74 Nebraska (OT) |
76 Baylor
95 Oklahoma |
58 A&M
67 Texas |
|
| 01.26-01.28 |
89 Oklahoma
81 O-State |
78 Texas
72 Baylor |
49 I-State
55 Colorado |
72 Missouri
88 K-State |
68 Kansas
62 Nebraska |
70 Tech
79 A&M |
|
| 01.31 |
78 Oklahoma
68 I-State |
85 K-State
81 Texas (OT) |
61 Colorado
66 Kansas |
72 Baylor
89 Missouri |
82 Nebraska
69 Tech |
64 O-State
76 A&M |
|
| 02.02-02.04 |
75 Kansas
65 Baylor |
50 I-State
65 K-State |
55 Nebraska
53 Colorado |
69 Missouri
65 Texas |
80 Tech
81 O-State |
71 A&M
77 Oklahoma |
|
| 02.07 |
72 Colorado
77 Oklahoma |
82 Missouri
68 I-State |
65 K-State
60 A&M |
67 O-State
78 Kansas |
55 Texas
58 Nebraska |
76 Baylor
83 Tech |
|
| 02.09-02.11 |
60 Kansas
62 Missouri |
74 O-State
99 Texas |
78 Oklahoma
63 Baylor |
42 Colorado
70 I-State |
73 Tech
85 K-State |
|
| 02.14 |
68 A&M
72 Baylor |
85 Texas
76 Colorado (OT) |
67 I-State
86 O-State |
85 Kansas
74 K-State |
47 Nebraska
70 Missouri |
74 Tech
95 Oklahoma |
|
| 02.16-02.18 |
Texas (PS)
@ A&M |
I-State
@ Kansas (PS) |
Colorado
@ Nebraska (PS) |
O-State (PS)
@ Tech |
|
| 02.21 |
Missouri (PS)
@ Colorado |
K-State (PS)
@ I-State |
Nebraska
@ Kansas (PS) |
Baylor
@ O-State (PS) |
A&M (PS)
@ Tech |
Oklahoma (S)
@ Texas (PR) |
|
| 02.23-02.25 |
Kansas
@ Oklahoma (PS) |
Baylor (PS)
@ I-State |
A&M
@ Nebraska (PS) |
O-State (PS)
@ Colorado |
K-State
@ Missouri (PS) |
Tech
@ Texas (PS) |
|
| 02.28-03.01 |
Colorado
@ Baylor (PS) |
I-State
@ A&M (PS) |
Nebraska
@ K-State (PS) |
Texas (PR)
@ O-State (S) |
Oklahoma (PS)
@ Tech |
Missouri
@ Kansas (PS) |
|
| 03.02-03.04 |
Baylor
@ Texas (PS) |
K-State
@ O-State (PS) |
A&M (PS)
@ Colorado |
Kansas (PS)
@ Tech |
Oklahoma
@ Missouri (PS) |
I-State
@ Nebraska (PS) |
|
| 03.07 |
Tech
@ I-State (PS) |
Colorado
@ K-State (PS) |
Texas
@ Kansas (PS) |
Missouri (PS)
@ A&M |
Nebraska
@ Baylor (PS) |
O-State
@ Oklahoma (PS) |
|
I've been following this feature for a while now
Looks like you could make some money using it to determine the outcome of games. Although, I’m guessing the teams that Pomeroy and Sagarin pick to win most often coincide with what Vegas picks.
Regardless, its an interesting read, keep it up.
2.1 seconds left - February 16, 2009
We don't condone that gambling nonsense in these parts!
Now, let’s say I make a spontaneous trip to that city you mentioned above, I would definitely keep this in my back pocket. I would be Marty McFly and it would be my Gray’s Sports Almanac….my only problem would be keeping Biff Tannen from getting his big mitts on it.
All joking aside, 11-0 for the week is damn impressive. Looking ahead, I wouldn’t be surprised by a loss in Columbia, but I feel like the OSU game is a must/can win for this team.
EMAW - February 16, 2009
We'll have to get that game in Stillwater...
…because we must get to 10 wins. Home games against Nebraska and Colorado should provide two, but then we’re going to have to get two on the road, and those three are @ISU, @MU, and @OSU.
TB - February 16, 2009
The game in Columbia is just as winnable...
…IMHO. We have manhandled MU 2 of the last three times we have played them. It’s a really good matchup for us. We were up big last year in Columbia and then fell apart. On the other hand, I can’t think of the last time we played well in Stillwater…gotta cut this short, but my point is I like our odds better in Columbia than in Stillwater.
gw1754 - February 16, 2009
Agree and disagree...
…on the one hand, Mizzou’s style plays to our strengths. Our players can play at that speed, so the effect of “40 Minutes of Whatever” is likely to be muted on us.
There are a couple reasons I think we have a better shot in Stillwater than Columbia. First of all, Mizzou was stung by the big loss to us and I’m sure they’ll be really focused to exact some revenge. Also, I hope that Denis can keep his head, because after the KU game, Mizzou Arena is really going to be a snakepit for him. Also, while they have mostly been cmpetitive this year, Okie State just isn’t nearly as good as Mizzou, and by that point in the season, there may not be much left for the Cowboys to play for.
TB - February 16, 2009
I could see anything from...
2-3 to 4-1 for you guys with 3-2 the most likely. Anything outside those figures would really surprise me.
hiphopopotamus - February 16, 2009
I think y'all go 4-1 the rest of the way.
You lose to Missouri, because no matter how much your two styles might match up, Missouri is awesome. And without a flukey shooting performance (61 eFG% last time, IIRC, for K-State) you might not have even won last time.
However, I think you guys can beat everyone else without too much struggle. Win all of those, and win the 4/5 game (assuming you’re the #4 seed) in the Big 12 Tournament and I think you’re an NCAA team. Maybe not, but I think so.
rockchalk - February 16, 2009
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